Big Slick Gets Trendy!
New for 2008!
Last year in 2007, I tried to set the betting line, as well as pick which order that the players will hit the rails, which was a monumental task. This year, my intentions are to base the picks on trends. To study the stats and determine whose doing well, poorly, or not much at all leading into the month, and based on that, make my decision about who I believe is on the biggest up-trend and has the best chance to win!
This means that the order that I place the players in, is the order of who I feel has the most momentum coming into this month therefore the most likely to win, and the line will be set to reflect this. The person in the #1 spot will obviously be my pick to take it all, that doesn't mean that he will, just that the trends indicated that to me.
You will see one of
three symbols by your name indicating whether your stock in the poker world is
rising
, falling
,
or it's just holding steady
, with my explanation
of why I feel this way!
Again this year, Slicks Picks will be a forum for friendly wagering although this is strictly for fun and any actual betting that may occur, neither Slick, nor this web site takes any responsibility! That being said, who wants to bet?
I will be setting the betting line for many of our players. I will also set the “Over/Under”. Understand, that setting an “Over/Under” will be difficult due to player nonparticipation. Example: if I set the “Over/Under” on a player at 8, this means that if you guess the over, the player must finish 7th or higher and if you guess the under, he must finish 9th or lower… but if only 10 players show up that month, the odds of winning the over are greatly increased. But since this is for fun anyhow, oh well!
P.S. Understand that the line is the odds of winning and nothing else. Second place doesn’t mean Jack!
Good luck everyone! Don’t forget about parlays!
May 2008
Turtle:
[Line = 3 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
1st place
Who am I to say when this guy will slow down? The only info I have on him is that he was first out after winning his last back-to-back. I’m not going to make a statement like that because just as with players that are struggling, I will take a wait and see approach… but it is tough to get three straight. He may not win this month (because it is so hard to go three straight), but he completely deserves this placement for his performance this year!
Popeye:
[Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
2nd place
Yes, it was just a hiccup in March as stated in last month’s Slick’s Picks. He was back to his winning ways in April, earning another 3rd place. It is becoming clear who the dominate players are so far this year and Popeye is definitely one of them at a 10 points per tournament average.
El
Guapo (2006 Second place): [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
3rd place
This is the El Guapo from 2006, the El Guapo that is near the top every time! Nobody needs to tell you that he has a tournament victory this year, but he also has a third and fourth place finish as well. What changed? I don’t know! Keep it up big man!
Spongerific
(2004 & 2005 Tour Champion): [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
4th place
Is this the month he gets off the bubble? I think it’s a good possibility. He has had chips going into the final table but hasn’t had the results that he could have. Card dead at the final table, or just unlucky, I don’t know, but I do know he is capable of more!
Zug
5th place: [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
Still with zero re-buys, he remains our only player with multiple tournaments this year to have not re-bought! That is something in itself. I think he is on an upswing. This should be a good month according to the trend and he did have a better month as predicted last month. All indications point upward!
Marshal: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
6th place
Maybe a hiccup, or an unlucky break, I wasn’t at the table to see. This is not a fall from grace rather a reality check. Going back to 2007 we find that he either goes big or goes out early. This year so far had been different, and may only get better but I’ll give him a month to regain his composer.
Cha Cha: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
7th place
I’m not ready to crown him champion just yet, but he did seem back to his normal self. Sometimes to players dislike, now and then I point out things about someone’s game that I see, either while playing against them, or dealing for them (mostly dealing) and right or wrong it should give you something to think about when analyzing your game… that being said… Cha Cha, maybe you are playing mind games with your heads up opponent, but you totally give away your weak hands by showing the player behind you the hand while exclaiming… huh! The problem is that you do it before your opponent has to act. Do with it what you will!
Burmese
Buzzsaw: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
8th place
The last time that she had a string of three finishes under 6 points per, she came back with a vengeance more than doubling her highest of the three! My thought is that she is ready again. Not that it needs to be said, but her style of play can go big anytime, so she is always a good bet to win… this month may be a good month to lay a wager on “The Saw”!
Sandy Cheeks
(2005 Tour Runner-up): [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 8]
9th place
A new Sandy Cheeks appeared at the Turtle Shell Saloon, one that was all-in or fold. That may have been because Gamara was sitting at her table and she was going to make him pay to play, but ultimately when someone is soooo willing to play any two cards for any amount, even that strategy doesn’t work!
Big
Slick (2006, 2007 Tour Champion): [Line = 8 to 1] – [O/U = 8]
10th place
Things are going from bad to worse. I don’t feel that I am playing bad poker, in fact, I thought that I made correct decisions based on the information I had, but ultimately it was all for not, as I was either out flopped, or beat on the turn or river. If things don’t start going in another direction, I’ll be all but out of Tour Championship contention!
Meaty: (2007
Second place): [Line = 9 to 1] – [O/U = 8]
11th place
This is the month that I have been waiting for. According to 2007, he ran a string of poor finishes for 3 months, and then busted out in a big way. If that is any indication, we should see a great finish from Meaty and a heater for the next 4 or 5 months. This is also a player to lay money down on. He has a volatile playing style that can really do well, or can struggle at times. I think his struggles are over for a while, but have to take a wait and see approach! How will the missed month affect his performance?
Riverisa:
[Line = 10 to 1] – [O/U = 8]
12th place
I hate to give this away but it was glaringly apparent to me and I’m sure to many other players that she chased about every draw that came her way, all the way to the river, and then some! I guess that is how she was given the name Riverisa! If you plan on chasing the big draws, try to hide that you are chasing!
Slicks Past Picks