Big Slick Gets Trendy!
In 2007, I tried to set the betting line, as well as pick which order that the players will hit the rails, which was a monumental task. This year, my intentions are to base the picks on trends. To study the stats and determine whose doing well, poorly, or not much at all leading into the month, and based on that, make my decision about who I believe is on the biggest up-trend and has the best chance to win!
This means that the order that I place the players in, is the order of who I feel has the most momentum coming into this month therefore the most likely to win, and the line will be set to reflect this. The person in the #1 spot will obviously be my pick to take it all, that doesn't mean that he will, just that the trends indicated that to me.
You will see one of
three symbols by your name indicating whether your stock in the poker world is
rising
, falling
,
or it's just holding steady
, with my explanation
of why I feel this way!
Again this year, Slicks Picks will be a forum for friendly wagering although this is strictly for fun and any actual betting that may occur, neither Slick, nor this web site takes any responsibility! That being said, who wants to bet?
I will be setting the betting line for many of our players. I will also set the “Over/Under”. Understand, that setting an “Over/Under” will be difficult due to player nonparticipation. Example: if I set the “Over/Under” on a player at 8, this means that if you guess the over, the player must finish 7th or higher and if you guess the under, he must finish 9th or lower… but if only 10 players show up that month, the odds of winning the over are greatly increased. But since this is for fun anyhow, oh well!
P.S. Understand that the line is the odds of winning and nothing else. Second place doesn’t mean Jack!
Good luck everyone! Don’t forget about parlays!
August 2009
Gamera:
[Line = 3 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
1st place
He just keeps on keepin’ on! He’s slowly pulling away from the pack and has now opened up a seven point lead on second place. But his real advantage is the fact that even if he finishes seventh in the next tournament, it won’t hurt him because one of his throwaways is an eight point tournament.
El Guapo: [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
2nd place
The year-end points don’t show it and his overall average finish for the year doesn’t show it, but the Big Man is quietly mounting a comeback of sorts. Over the last three he has a 4.67 AVP which lands him in second for my picks and is 2.33 finish placements better than his total for the year!
Cha Cha: [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
3rd place
His last three put him here, but we haven’t seen much of Cha Cha this year. I look forward to a great effort by the Cha and would like to finally see him take home the! trophy
Big Slick: [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
4th place
What does a guy have to do to move up a spot? I finish first and can’t even advance! Seriously, I understand why, because I friggin suck at my own casino and take a nose dive every time. If I didn’t have the early wash outs, I (like Turtle) would be in great shape to compete for the Tour Title.
Marshal: [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
5th place
As predicted, he was an early exit and even though I could rip on him for slipping in average finish placement, I know that this month he should finish way better that expected and reverse his AFP. I like to see trends and his is very pronounced so I expect a better than 5th finish this month. If he has a good month it could really help him overall if “you know who” bites it early and has to write his first frontpage!
Sponge:
[Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
6th place
Let’s look for the silver lining… do you see it?... I haven’t found it yet… hmmmm where could it be?... I know it’s around here somewhere. Seriously, he holds our #2 spot for points per tournament earned over his SBPT career and in the last two he’s played, he has an 8.5 average. That missed tournament hurt him for the year-end but he’s not dead yet. A few more good finishes and he’ll be right there looking for year-end hardware!
Mac
Tonight: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
7th place
He plays a consistent game and seems to be one to watch this year. We may have to give him rookie of the year, not that he’s a rookie in poker but for the SBPT. His placement is deceiving because he had one poor finish two months ago. Other than that, he’s done well overall.
The
Saw: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
8th place
What’s happened to the Saw? Four month’s into the year, we saw her right at the top or close to it, but over the last few months she has been on a slide. It needs to turn around and it needs to now or she may find herself just playing the spoiler towards year-end!
“E”
: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
9th place
What a crazy year! Did winning the trophy affect her mentally? In the last two month since her win she has gone out second and last month she went out first and is on hook for a pie. I want to see the determination that I saw in January when she proclaimed that she was going to win a trophy in 2009!
Sandy Cheeks: (2004, 2005
Tour Champion) : [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
10th place
Last month was a tough one for Sandy Cheeks! She re-bought more than I think I have ever seen her do and then couldn’t do a thing with the highly-priced chips. She’ll be looking for redemption this month I’m sure, so stay out of her way for I believe she’ll be motivated!
Slicks Past Picks
June 08