Slick's Picks

Big Slick Gets Trendy!

In 2007, I tried to set the betting line, as well as pick which order that the players will hit the rails, which was a monumental task. This year, my intentions are to base the picks on trends. To study the stats and determine whose doing well, poorly, or not much at all leading into the month, and based on that, make my decision about who I believe is on the biggest up-trend and has the best chance to win!

This means that the order that I place the players in, is the order of who I feel has the most momentum coming into this month therefore the most likely to win, and the line will be set to reflect this. The person in the #1 spot will obviously be my pick to take it all, that doesn't mean that he will, just that the trends indicated that to me.

You will see one of three symbols by your name indicating whether your stock in the poker world is rising, falling, or it's just holding steady , with my explanation of why I feel this way!

Again this year, Slicks Picks will be a forum for friendly wagering although this is strictly for fun and any actual betting that may occur, neither Slick, nor this web site takes any responsibility! That being said, who wants to bet?

I will be setting the betting line for many of our players. I will also set the “Over/Under”. Understand, that setting an “Over/Under” will be difficult due to player nonparticipation. Example: if I set the “Over/Under” on a player at 8, this means that if you guess the over, the player must finish 7^th or higher and if you guess the under, he must finish 9^th or lower… but if only 10 players show up that month, the odds of winning the over are greatly increased. But since this is for fun anyhow, oh well!

P.S. Understand that the line is the odds of winning and nothing else. Second place doesn’t mean Jack!

Good luck everyone! Don’t forget about parlays!

June 2009

“E”: [Line = 3 to 1] – [O/U = 4]

1^st place

No surprise here and although I don’t expect her to win as I don’t expect anyone to go back-to-back I have to give her props on commitment. When she saw trophies being passed out in January, she declared that she was going to have one of those next year and so far it looks very probable.

Gamera: [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 4]

2^nd place

Here’s a guy with a 4.33 AFP but no first or second in the last three months. That means consistency! He’s either in the chip, or right outside of it. Will it get him to a trophy at years-end? I wonder.

Big Slick: (2006, 2007 Tour Champion): [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 5]

3^rd place

What’s been plaguing Big Slick is lack of consistency! It’s all or nothing… and he doesn’t mean it to be this way, it just happens. An AFP of 6.60 for the year but 5.33 over last three (OL3) means that he’s improving but it’ll take more quality finishes to get him into trophy contention.

Marshal: [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 5]

4^th place

If patterns are to be observed, then Marshal may do better than expected in this tournament. If you look back this year you’ll see that he’ll get 5 or 6 points one month and then doubles that the following month and back again the next. By this pattern, he should do well this month but over the last three He’s dropped off from his yearly average finish.

El Guapo: [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 6]

5^th place

Believe it or not, by my calculations, the big man should be on the bubble or near it… maybe even best it. I think Stella’s got her grove back… and so does El Guapo! His last three AFP’s are about 1.3 positions better than for the year and he’s poised and ready to improve some more.

Cha Cha: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 6]

6^th place

His AFP for his last three are the same as El Guapo’s but the big man gets the nod on finish placement because of his minimal re-buys. Cha has only played three this year so far and has done okay for himself picking up two 4^th place chips already. If he can keep it up, he’ll have his best year yet.

Mac Tonight: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 7]

7^th place

He started out the year on fire and was leading the tour for a short time but as with any year-long endeavor, things will change as they go along. OL3 Mac has produced a 6.67 AFP while for the year it’s much better. This means he’s been losing some ground and mid year is not the time to start losing ground.

Sandy Cheeks (2005 Tour runner up): [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]

8^th place

The good news is that she has improved over her last three but the bad news is that she can’t seem to get in the grove and hasn’t earned more than 8 points in any tournament this year. When it comes time to drop your worst two, sadly, she’ll have to drop some points also because she hasn’t had a real flame out this year either. Too late? Probably not, but she’ll have to really crush the tables for the rest of the year.

The Saw : [Line = 8 to 1] – [O/U = 7]

9^th place

Her year started the best way it could with the first win of 2009 and has continued to be pretty good although she’s dropped off OL3 to a 7.0 AFP. For the year her AFP is 5.20 so you can see she’s declined a bit. But don’t count her out because she has it in her to bring the trophy home anytime. Once she gets a big chip stack, she tough to handle so it’s important to squash it early and not let her double up!

UniBobber (2004, 2005 Tour Champion) : [Line = 8 to 1] – [O/U = 7]

10^th place

Even though he placed 5^th last month, his AFP/OL3 is a whopping 8.0, a 2.0 position difference from his yearly finish placement. That being said, I have to admit I voted for him as my teammate on the PokerTalk poll. I chose him because he’s unpredictable and aggressive, and has a good idea of the game, not to mention his 6 tournament wins! At times he over-commits his chips, but who doesn’t.

Slicks Past Picks

June 08