Big Slick Gets Trendy!
Last year in 2007, I tried to set the betting line, as well as pick which order that the players will hit the rails, which was a monumental task. This year, my intentions are to base the picks on trends. To study the stats and determine whose doing well, poorly, or not much at all leading into the month, and based on that, make my decision about who I believe is on the biggest up-trend and has the best chance to win!
This means that the order that I place the players in, is the order of who I feel has the most momentum coming into this month therefore the most likely to win, and the line will be set to reflect this. The person in the #1 spot will obviously be my pick to take it all, that doesn't mean that he will, just that the trends indicated that to me.
You will see one of
three symbols by your name indicating whether your stock in the poker world is
rising
, falling
,
or it's just holding steady
, with my explanation
of why I feel this way!
Again this year, Slicks Picks will be a forum for friendly wagering although this is strictly for fun and any actual betting that may occur, neither Slick, nor this web site takes any responsibility! That being said, who wants to bet?
I will be setting the betting line for many of our players. I will also set the “Over/Under”. Understand, that setting an “Over/Under” will be difficult due to player nonparticipation. Example: if I set the “Over/Under” on a player at 8, this means that if you guess the over, the player must finish 7th or higher and if you guess the under, he must finish 9th or lower… but if only 10 players show up that month, the odds of winning the over are greatly increased. But since this is for fun anyhow, oh well!
P.S. Understand that the line is the odds of winning and nothing else. Second place doesn’t mean Jack!
Good luck everyone! Don’t forget about parlays!
May 2009
Marshal:
[Line = 3 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
1st place
He is absolutely on fire this season. He’s tied for the top spot, but in the last three months he has really stepped it up with a 3.33 average finish placement (AFP). So far this year, he has a +93.5 profit to loss % (PTL%) and also his first Tour Title. A great way to start, let’s hope he can keep it up.
Big
Slick (2006, 2007 Tour Champion): [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
2nd place
Not far behind Marshal is Slick sporting a 3.67 average finish placement (AFP) over last three (OL3) with a first and second in the last two. His PTL% is right on track with the last two years at +156.4 and counting. Slick had a rough start but is hoping to leave those tournaments behind and take down the 2009 Tour Title.
Mac
Tonight: [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
3rd place
A newcomer to the tour but Mac Tonight isn’t wasting time establishing his presence. It took him only 3 tournaments to take down his first title and after 4 tournaments he is sitting tied for the top spot of the Title race. “OL3” he has a 4.67 FP and for the year he carries a +87 PTL%. Good job!
“E”:
[Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
4th place
It looked as if I would never be writing this about “E” because last year (although she only played a hand full of tournaments) she maintained a 10+ AFP. This year she’s cut it in half to a 5.0 AFP. On top of that, in only three played this year, she has a 2nd and 3rd place finish to boast about. She is a changed player to the dislike of many of her competitors.
Turtle:
[Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
5th place
Having another good year but on a slight down turn is Gamera. He has two 3rd place finishes so far and also a fourth and is tied for third overall for the year but can’t seem to get “in the chip” with a big stack that he can use to catapult him to victory. OL3 he has a 5.33 AFP but for the year so far it’s a 4.75. No doubt he’ll be hanging in at the end!
The
Saw: [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
6th place
After a great start to the year, and her second season opener victory, unfortunately the Saws blades have dulled a bit. OL3 she has a 6.0 AFP but for the year it’s a 4.75. When I say “Dulled a bit” I mean just a bit she is tied for third overall but without her one bad tournament, she would be the top dog out of us all!
Sandy
Cheeks (2005 Tour runner up): [Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
7th place
Having trouble getting traction is Sandy Cheeks. She’s doing better OL3 but can’t catch that break that she needs. Right now, she seems to only get about halfway through a tournament. I feel that she will catch a break soon and take home a chip and some change!
UniBobber
(2004, 2005 Tour Champion): [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
8th place
His start to the year wasn’t bad and it looked as if the mighty Sponge was back but the last two tournaments have been a disappointment to the Sponge and everyone else. OL3 he carries a 7.0 AFP but for the year it’s a much better 6.25. Like many of us… he’s used up his two throwaways for the year and it’s rough going from this point on!
Cha Cha: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
9th place
Cha Cha only has two tournaments played this year and hasn’t done much in either. He did get a fourth place chip and was poised to go much further until he gave his chips to the eventual tournament winner. This year he carries a 7.5 AFP. Because he has missed two tournaments this year already and with the new rule change, it’s going to be quite a struggle for him to get some hardware at years end!
El
Guapo: (2006 Second place) [Line = 8 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
10th Place
A true “Penthouse to Outhouse” story is what El Guapo is writing! Last year he was oh so close to capturing the Tour Championship, but this year his struggles are many. Both for the year and OL3 he holds a 8.75 AFP and is 9th in the tour standings. Will he recover… somewhat I believe but in time for a chance at some hardware… that will be tough.
Scooter: [Line = 8 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
11th place
Without much chance to play, it’s hard to get on a roll quite frankly it’s been hard for Scoots but she loves to play and we love to play with her! She is always a threat to go deep but hasn’t so far this year!
Slicks Past Picks
June 08