Big Slick Gets Trendy!
New for 2008!
Last year in 2007, I tried to set the betting line, as well as pick which order that the players will hit the rails, which was a monumental task. This year, my intentions are to base the picks on trends. To study the stats and determine whose doing well, poorly, or not much at all leading into the month, and based on that, make my decision about who I believe is on the biggest up-trend and has the best chance to win!
This means that the order that I place the players in, is the order of who I feel has the most momentum coming into this month therefore the most likely to win, and the line will be set to reflect this. The person in the #1 spot will obviously be my pick to take it all, that doesn't mean that he will, just that the trends indicated that to me.
You will see one of
three symbols by your name indicating whether your stock in the poker world is
rising
, falling
,
or it's just holding steady
, with my explanation
of why I feel this way!
Again this year, Slicks Picks will be a forum for friendly wagering although this is strictly for fun and any actual betting that may occur, neither Slick, nor this web site takes any responsibility! That being said, who wants to bet?
I will be setting the betting line for many of our players. I will also set the “Over/Under”. Understand, that setting an “Over/Under” will be difficult due to player nonparticipation. Example: if I set the “Over/Under” on a player at 8, this means that if you guess the over, the player must finish 7th or higher and if you guess the under, he must finish 9th or lower… but if only 10 players show up that month, the odds of winning the over are greatly increased. But since this is for fun anyhow, oh well!
P.S. Understand that the line is the odds of winning and nothing else. Second place doesn’t mean Jack!
Good luck everyone! Don’t forget about parlays!
December 2008
Big
Slick (2006, 2007 Tour Champion): [Line = 3 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
1st place
I will go out on a limb and throw away everything that has been a pattern this year for Slick, and go with the bigger phenomenon of now 4 straight December wins in hopes to make it 5! A 3.67 average for the last three is not bad either!
Meaty: (2007 Second place): [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 4]
2nd place
Although he was absent last month, the last three tournaments he attended, he has a minimal 2.33 average finish position. That is a 1st, 2nd, and a 4th place finish in the last three tournaments played… phenomenal!
Sandy
Cheeks (2005 Tour runner up): [Line = 4 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
3rd place
What a difference one tournament makes! Because I trend the last three to get an idea of how well players are doing, each tournament played can really change a player’s outlook. Sandy is a prime example. By not counting August and adding November to the average, she went from a 7.33 average to a 4.33 average for the last three, and thus my third place pick!
Popeye: [Line
= 5 to 1] – [O/U = 5]
4th place
His average for the year is an astounding 3.80, while his last three is still a very respectable 4.67. With numbers like that, you would expect more tournament wins. He has one this year, but with those numbers, should he have more? Because of that, he has two players who could steal the top spot on the final tournament of 2008. It will be exciting!
El
Guapo: (2006 Second place) [Line = 5 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
5th Place
He is hot on the tail of Popeye for the 2008 Tour Championship but all the pieces must fall in place for the big man like they did for Slick in 2006. He’ll have to earn 7 or more points while Popeye stays under 5. If that happens El Guapo takes home a Tour Championship! El Guapo needs only to tie Popeye because he holds the tie-breaker by having more total points for all twelve tournaments. Go big man!
The
Saw:
[Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 6]
6th place
She moved up two points in one month placing her in the 6th spot for this Slicks Picks. She went from a 7.67 average to a 5.67 average by finishing fourth last month. Like always, she can spell trouble for other players at the table but she hasn’t been as terrifying of late.
Turtle:
[Line = 6 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
7th place
Here’s where the averages become deceiving. Because Turtle won the August tournament, that really helped his three month average for the last Slicks Picks, so even though he took third last month his average went down for the trend cycle taking him from a 5.33 average for the last three month to a now 6.00 for the last three. For the year, he’s doing great! He is guaranteed hardware at years-end and although it will be tough to get the top spot, if not impossible depending on how many players attend, he has certainly cemented his name in the S.B.P.T. record books.
Cha Cha: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
8th place
A player on the way up is Cha Cha, unfortunately, he has a long way to go. I’m using the player averages over the last three tournaments played to determine the order of this list, and even though he has a 6.50 average finish, he still ranks 8th for these picks. For the year he has a miserable 8.22, so he gaining big ground as of late, sadly it’s too little too late.
UniBobber
(2004, 2005 Tour Champion): [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
9th place
I’m sure Sponge is kicking himself for not letting the hand go that sent him out early, but he is fired up about spoiling someone’s chances at glory and I suspect he would love to spoil Turtles chances. The two seem to have a bit of a rivalry. Whatever the outcome, this year has been a special one!
Marshal:
[Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
8th place
A surprise first out last month and consequently he’s slipping to the back of the pack having only an 8.33 finish average for the last three. Had he done better over that time, he would be in trophy contention but he may be a bit too far out at this point.
“E”: [Line = 7 to 1] – [O/U = 7]
11th place
She has only played 4 tournaments and averages a 10th place average finish. To be fair, the last three have been slightly better with a 9.33, but until we see more results, that’s it.
Slicks Past Picks
June 08