"What Are The Odds?"
This Months Query:
What are the odds of chosen player winning three of the same months in a row (Example: August 07,08,09)?
It's a stretch... so hang on and enjoy the ride.
This is tough because, who knows three years from now if you can attend the tournament of a particular month, or if there will even be a tournament three years from now (I certainly plan for there to be). So a lot of this might be speculation and guesstimation. So for now, we'll start with what we know:
Roughly on average, 12 players attend each tournament, and since it's a chosen player, we should use an average of the top players with the top attendance.:
This leaves me with 6 players with an average attendance of 31.666 of 35 tournaments for roughly a 90% average attendance.
Of these 6 players, they have taken home the title 19 of 35 times for 54% victory percentage.
Divide 6 into 19 to get the average titles won of each of the six players for Roughly 3.2 per player (of the 19 tournament titles won by this six).
Divide 3.2 titles by the total amount of titles won (35) to get roughly 9% per player of top six.
Are you confused yet?
Trust me, I'm working on something. Whether it's right or wrong is yet to be determined, but if your taking the odds... pick wrong.
So for one of the six to attend three straight tournaments each a year apart, at a 90% average attendance, we would calculate 90% x 90% x 90% for a total of roughly 73% So that's to say that your horse if you choose one of the six has a 73% chance of attending all three.
Then for one of the top six to win the trophy, we have figured it to be about a 9% chance on average, so we would have to calculate 9% x 9% x 9% for a total of 0.073% to win all three.
So after all that, let's calculate :
73% that your horse will attend every one (x) 0.073% chance that your horse will win all three (note that I didn't use the average player per tournament percentage (0.057%) because these top six have a better than average result).
The result of which is: .0539% for about a 1886 to 1 shot.
I will take this at 1850 to 1 for any that are interested.
The bottom line is that it probably wouldn't be wise to choose anyone aside from the top six in attendance from the records that we have to date, but there are some new guys that are showing up consistently that may attend every tournament for the next three years, but I can only base this on the history that I have.
Good luck everyone! Make me pay for my ignorance!
Thanks For Playing At Big Slicks Sports Book!
Standard wagers from previous WATO's:
1st thru 4th place, are all women: 75 to 1
1st thru 4th place, are all men: 6 to 1
A married couple placing 1st & 2nd in this tournament: 20 to 1
Headhunter award: 9 t0 1
Win, Place, Show: 1500 t0 1 (1 cent max)
First, Second, Third, Out: 900 to 1 (1 cent max)
Heads up Battle (naming heads up players): 100 to 1 ($.25 max)
3rd times a charm (3 straight victories): 1000 t0 1 ($.05 max)
Picking a player to take home a souvenir chip: 2 to 1
Title and Headhunter Award: 20 to 1
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