What are the odds?

Welcome Back!

It's been a while since "What are the Odds" has made an appearance and with any luck, it'll continue to show itself from time to time. But this is always a good time for it to emerge from the shadows as it is a new year and a new opportunity for all our S.B.P.T. players to start anew and create their own destiny!

"What are the Odds" will try to place in order the finish placement for the 2010 Tour Championship and will also give the reasoning behind the findings which determined the positional outcome.

How I came to this conclusion:

Each players "Average Finish Placement" (AFP) for this year was multiplied by the number of tournaments for this year then were added to the previous years finish placement point totals and then divided by the total number of tournaments to give an Average Finish Placement for every tournament played back to 2007.

I then took how many possible tournaments could have been played for each player since they joined the S.B.P.T.  (since 2007) and divided that number by how many they attended to give a "Player Participation Factor" (PPF) (12 possible tournaments played divided by 10 attended will give a PPF of 1.2 (12/10=1.2)).

The AFP is then multiplied by the PPF to give me a "Player Corrected Average" (PCA) which really only applies when considering a run at a "Tour Title" since someone could finish first or second every tournament that they play but if the only play a quarter of all tournaments then they won't go very far towards a year-end title.

Below will be the Player, his AFP, PPF, PCA, and his projected finish for your understanding.

Player AFP PPF PCA Projected Finish
Slick 5.20 1.0285 5.3482 1
Marshal 5.47 1.0666 5.8343 2
*Mac Tonight 5.58 1.0 *5.58 3
El Guapo 5.86 1.0 5.86 4
Turtle 5.61 1.0909 6.1199 5
Sponge 6.35 1.1612 7.3736 6
Sandy Cheeks 6.61 1.1612 7.6755 7
The Saw 6.73 1.2 8.076 8
Popeye 5.78 1.4166 8.1879 9
Meaty 5.83 1.50 8.745 10
Cha Cha 6.70 1.3333 8.9331 11
Scooter 6.63 1.8947 12.5621 12
Jeremy 7.50 1.75 13.125 13
"E" 8.43 1.9090 16.0955 14
Diego 7.33 2.3333 17.1033 15

* Mac Tonight has played only one year and attended all 12 tournaments and therefore a "Player Participation Factor" of 1.0 with an "Average Finish Placement" of 5.58 giving him a 5.58  "Player Corrected Average" while Marshal's PCA may be a bit worse, Marshal's 2009 AFP was far better than Mac Tonight's 2009 AFP.

 

Thanks For Playing at Big Slick's Sports Book!

Standard wagers from previous WATO's:

Board Plays: 1 to 1 (maximum bet = 5)

Slick's Pick Two: 11 to 1

A married couple placing 1st & 2nd in this tournament: 20 to 1

Heads up Battle (naming heads up players): 100 to 1 ($.25 max)

Title and Headhunter Award: 20 to 1

Headhunter award: 9 t0 1

Headhunter award winner does not place 1st thru 4th: 8 to 1

Win, Place, Show:  1500 t0 1 (1 cent max)

First, Second, Third, Out:  900 to 1 (1 cent max)

3rd times a charm (3 straight victories): 1000 t0 1 ($.05 max)

Picking a player to take home a souvenir chip: 2 to 1

1st thru 4th place, are all women:  75 to 1

1st thru 4th place, are all men: 6 to 1

 

    Previous What Are The Odds:

    April 2006

    May 2006

    June 2006

    July 2006

    August 2006

   September 2006

    October 2006

    November 2006

    December 2006

    January 2007

    February 2007

    March 2007

    April 2007

    May 2007

    June 2007

    July 2007

    August 2007

    September 2007

    October 2007

    November 2007

    December 2007