What are the odds?

Welcome Back!

It's been a while since "What are the Odds" has made an appearance and with any luck, it'll continue to show itself from time to time. But this is always a good time for it to emerge from the shadows as it is a New Year and a new opportunity for all our S.B.P.T. players to start anew and create their own destiny!

"What are the Odds" will try to place in order the finish placement for the 2012 Tour Championship and will also give the reasoning behind the findings which determined the positional outcome.

How I came to this conclusion:

Each players "Average Finish Placement" (AFP) for their 2011 year were multiplied by the number of tournaments the player attended in 2011 then were added to the previous years finish placement point totals and then divided by the total number of tournaments for each of those years to give an Average Finish Placement for every tournament played back to 2007.

I then took how many possible tournaments could have been played for each player since they joined the S.B.P.T.  (Back to 2007) and divided that number by how many they've attended to give a "Player Participation Factor" (PPF) (12 possible tournaments played divided by 10 attended will give a PPF of 1.2 (12/10=1.2)).

The AFP is then multiplied by the PPF to give me a "Player Corrected Average" (PCA) which really only applies when considering a run at a "Tour Title" since someone could finish first or second every tournament that they play but if the only play a quarter of all tournaments then they won't go very far towards a year-end title.

The South Bay Poker Tour is set up to reward those that play and participate month to month... therefore:

    *Player Participation Factor (PPF) is a factor based on career participation. When a player's participation changes dramatically so does this Tour Championship Projection. In the case of "Slick", a change in participation will dramatically change his PPF for this year thus changing his projection. Due to his schedule change and being unable to continue with his typical attendance availability, a forecasted PPF has been substituted for his actual PPF in hopes of being more accurate for this 2012 projection.

Below will be the Player, his AFP, PPF, PCA, and his projected finish for your understanding.

  Good Luck in 2012!