"What Are The Odds?"
This Months Query:
What are the odds that someone will flop Four of a kind at this month’s tournament?
I’m going to save myself the trouble of doing the math and get it from the internet, which tells me that it’s a 1 in 4165 chance for a random five cards to produce four of a kind.
This next part is a guesstimation in which I estimate we have roughly a three minute per hand average with roughly 12 players to start on two tables. We are guaranteed to play for at least an hour at full capacity. That would say that we play 20 hands between the two tables before break (x) 12 players for roughly 240 individual hands.
After the break, if we just take the average playing time (5 hours) (x) average player total (6 players) (x) average individual hands per hour (20) we would calculate (5 x 6 x 20) + 240 (from the first hour) for a very roughly estimated total of 840 hands.
Where it gets sticky is figuring how many players see the flop. With our action junkies, I'd say that roughly half the players see the flop on every deal, so let's cut 840 in half and say that 420 hands see the flop at an average tournament.
If we know that there is a 1 in 4165 chance of flopping quads and we estimate to see just over a tenth of those hands, so I’ll offer this wager at 9 to 1 for anyone interested!
Hopefully the player who flops a quad will be kind enough to show if the hand doesn't go to the river!
Thanks For Playing At Big Slicks Sports Book!
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