What Are The Odds?
May 2006
This month’s query is:
For this, I will have to assume that everyone shows up and that the ratio when everyone doesn’t will be about the same. So for the math, I will figure that there are 12 men and 6 women.
I know that if there are 12 of 18 players that are male, there is a 12 of 18 chance that a male will win the trophy (assuming equal skill level).
We can then figure that of the remaining 17 players, 11 male and 6 female, that the males have an 11 of 17 shot of taking 2nd.
So that leaves the males a 10 of 16 shot of taking 3rd, and a 9 of 15 shot of finishing 4th.
To calculate this we have to multiply 12 over 18 times 11 over 17 times 10 over 16 times 9 over 15 for a result of:
11880 over 73440
For a grand total of 6.18 to 1
I’ll take the wager at: 6 to 1
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