"What Are The Odds?"
This Months Query:
"What are the Odds" that a player completes the "poker cycle" this month?
(My definition of the "Poker Cycle" is getting a first, second, third, and fourth place finish along with a headhunter award, in one "Tour" year.)
There are 8 RSVP'ed players who can accomplish this feat this month, but 4 of them need to win both, the finish placement that completes their finish placement need, and the headhunter award.
Players needs:
Slick - 4th
Scooter - 3rd
Sandy - 2nd & Headhunter
Meaty - 3rd
Popeye - 2nd
El Guapo - 1st & Headhunter
UniSponger - 3rd & Headhunter
Marshal - 1st & Headhunter
If we look closely we can see that 4 players can actually complete the cycle this month if everything plays out just right. But with 13 players having RSVP'ed and eight players needing to finish in a particular spot, this is quite a task to determine. Not to mention some players also need the Headhunter award to complete the cycle, and for that the line has been already set at 9 to 1.
Right off the bat, for a player (who plays to win and doesn't manipulate the results by purposely falling short) to finish in his or her needed spot and also win the headhunter award, the calculation should look like this: 1/13 x 1/9 = 1/117 or 117 to 1. That's just for 1 player and there are 4 that need both the headhunter and their correct finish placement for a total of 4/117 or about 29 to 1. Then there are 4 that need to finish at a particular placement out of 13 players which would be 4/13 or just over 3 to 1.
Let's add these together for a total of 8/130 which translates to a whopping 16.75 to 1.
I will take this wager @ 15 to 1 for anyone interested.
I would like to point out that it's only 13 t0 1 for 4 players which right off the bat is 13/4 or 3.25 to 1 so I could really be taking it in the shorts by offering this, but I'm averaging the odds based on the 8 players. But for the record... why I think this is a reasonable line, is that I don't see a person purposely destroying his or her Tournament Championship possibility to come in anything less than first place, only to win 15 bones, but you never know. Let's see what happens!
Good luck everyone! Make me pay for my ignorance!
Thanks For Playing At Big Slicks Sports Book!
Standard wagers from previous WATO's:
A married couple placing 1st & 2nd in this tournament: 20 to 1
Heads up Battle (naming heads up players): 100 to 1 ($.25 max)
Title and Headhunter Award: 20 to 1
Headhunter award: 9 t0 1
Headhunter award winner does not place 1st thru 4th: 8 to 1
Win, Place, Show: 1500 t0 1 (1 cent max)
First, Second, Third, Out: 900 to 1 (1 cent max)
3rd times a charm (3 straight victories): 1000 t0 1 ($.05 max)
Picking a player to take home a souvenir chip: 2 to 1
1st thru 4th place, are all women: 75 to 1
1st thru 4th place, are all men: 6 to 1
Previous What Are The Odds: